This time last year, the Formula One world was preparing for a normal season. The top 3 looked ready to continue gapping the midfield. Season postponement aside, there was a very different shakeup in 2020, in the shape of a prancing horse that maybe needed a one way trip to the glue factory. The Italian marque turned up with severely underpowered engines, which led to them finishing sixth in the constructors, as well as putting both of their customer teams at the back of the grid. 

There were rumblings of such problems before pre-season testing, and while Binotto is one of the more open team principals, nobody expected them to be quite as bad as they were. Could that be because nobody wanted to believe such a downturn was possible for the fabled team? Maybe, but there’s plenty of motivation for struggling teams to cover up their failings. 

Let’s bring it back to current day for a minute. Ferrari are promising a much better engine for 2021, which of course benefits Haas and Alfa Romeo as well. Red Bull feel they can throw together a title challenge next year, and a win at Abu Dhabi will boost their confidence of that happening. Williams are quietly confident of gaining big chunks of time with new Mercedes parts and new ownership, and Mclaren are feeling good about their new Mercedes engines too, after running with Renault engines in 2020. And none of that compares to Aston Martin, who seem confident a new name, new driver lineup and new colours will see them reach further up the pecking order. 
How can this be then? Will we see Mercedes fall into the pack and a six team fight at the front? Call me a cynic, but it doesn’t seem likely.

There’s one clear motivation for teams to big up their chances - and it’s green and makes the world go round. If you can convince your sponsors they’ve invested in a soon-to-be championship winning team, they’re going to be far more happy to throw their money at you, in return for an expected increase in air time that comes with leading the pack. 

Even if my cynicism is correct, and it’s only speculation of course, there’s one side effect of this pre-season chest-beating that, as a fan of F1, I wouldn’t want to go, and that’s all of the hype. Can you imagine a world where all the teams are realistic about their chances. Christian Horner telling the press that they aren’t going to be able to challenge Mercedes again, and that their aim for the season is three wins and second in the Constructors? 

And of course teams need their fans. What would Ferrari be without a sea of Tifosi filling the grandstands of Monza? Well, who knows, perhaps 2020 gave us a hint of what that might be like, and it’s not a nice picture. 

So, will the lame Italian horse get to its feet? If you believe the hype, they’ll be right back up and at it next year, but it’s best to take that with a pinch of salt. At the end of the day though, isn’t the fun in not knowing? And with pre-season testing still a couple of months away (March 12-14 in Bahrain), there’s plenty of time for speculation and debate, and I’m certainly glad about that.
 

-- Archived from 18/01/2021 --